AAP needs only 3 seats to win India

Mahesh Murthy is a commentator and an entrepreneur. 

Mahesh Murthy
Mahesh Murthy

The Aam Aadmi Party doesn’t need 272 seats to win India. Just 3.

Bear with me, this might be long, but it might also be worth a read.

This isn’t just my theory – this is something I’ve heard from folks who are close to pretty high-on ups in the AAP, and something that makes a lot more sense when I talk and think about it.

Here’s the thinking – see how it fits your brain: Let’s start with the AAP itself. In some ways it’s the least ambitious party when it comes to retaining power – see how easily they gave up Delhi when the Congress and BJP came together to deny passage of the Jan Lokpal Bill. In other ways it’s the most ambitious – see how they’ve come from nowhere to field candidates for over 380 seats in the Lok Sabha polls?

These guys play for the long game – if they think they need to make a queen sacrifice today to win the chess board a year later, they will. They have no particular urgent hunger for power.

What they’re playing for is NOT for AAP to be elected – but for the duopoly of UPA and NDA to be ended in India. Remember their origins were in India Against Corruption, not in India For Anything Else. Think about it – for decades we’ve been ruled by the same two blocks of parties – and every 5 or 10 years, we get sick of the corruption of one and throw it out, thinking the other guy was better. Repeat after 5 or 10 years. Anti-incumbency factor is the name we give it. Fatigue with corruption and mis-governance is more like it. And conventional wisdom says we’ll do it again this time, throwing out the Congress for the BJP.

The AAP’s stance is that both are corrupt, perhaps only in varying degrees and that we need to get rid of both for India to get a fresh start.

aapThe BJP certainly owes a lot to the back-room support of Mukesh Ambani and his tentacles in government, oil and news. Dhirubhai’s elder son famously said of the Congress, when they were his favoured lot: Congress hamaari dukaan hai – the Congress is our shop. And of the BJP he later remarked “BJP hamaari jeb main hai” – The BJP is in our pocket. Nobody thinks the Ambanis are paragons of virtue – we all just “know” how they’ve been good at “fixing” governments.

Despite its TV commercials about being anti-corruption, the BJP openly welcomes it, calling back Karnataka’s thief-in-chief Yeddyurappa and mining scammer Sriramulu, as well as woman-hating Sri Ram Sene rogue Muthalik. Modi’s record, too is less than stellar, with Solanki, Amit Shah and other well-known thugs in his inner circle.

What the BJP is strong on is efficiency – and they are efficiently doing all they can to tie up alliances with known devils and even police-sheeters to ensure their 272 seats of support after the polls close.

The BJP has a practical view for sure – let’s sleep with the known criminals to get power – we’ll see after that what happens. A pragmatic view, perhaps. But one that begs the question – what ministerial berths will they have to give away, along with a tacit promise to loot India – like the Congress had to do with Karunanidhi’s A. Raja, whose job was to loot for his party chief when he was made Telecom Minister.

(As an aside, I wonder how the markets will fare if BJP and allies do get elected – and the allies get plum ministerial berths. It’ll just be Congress with a different face all over again. Will we see Sensex 20,000 and Nifty 6,000 again?)

But the BJP has one disadvantage the Congress doesn’t have – a bunch of strong regional satraps who are angry about Narendra Modi’s sudden prominence, and who would like nothing better than to send Modi packing back to Gujarat. But we’ll re-visit this in a bit.

Now to the Congress. Nothing much needs to be said about this, perhaps the most corrupt bunch of thieves that has ever walked this planet. But they do have a different defining characteristic – they’re owned and controlled by Sonia’s purse strings and her Dubai bank accounts flush with funds. Without Mummy’s money, Baba will be nowhere. And perhaps the party will be nowhere either.

Still with me? Good.

Now it gets interesting.

Try to see this as a war – and you’ll see two strong goliath armies. On the one side, there’s the evil Congress, with its scheming empress Sonia and weak heir-apparent Rahul who is trying hard to look bulked-up. There is no second line here – no regional commanders, only foot-soldiers on low pay.

And on the other side is the chieftain of the moment Modi with his strong regional satraps going along for the ride to victory – but happy to take on power if Modi were to fall by the wayside.

Into this battle strides a little David, with no money, no resources, nothing.

What is David’s best option?

A quick analysis will show that if Rahul and Sonia were knocked off their perches, the Congress will quickly collapse. And if Modi was to lose his Varanasi seat even after winning his Gujarat seat, the pack of wolves in the BJP will themselves send him back, tail between legs, to Gujarat.

So what’s the most efficient use of David’s meagre resources?

I’d say it is to take Rahul, Sonia and Modi head on – and defeat them.

Three seats.

That’s all.

The AAP wouldn’t come to power. It’d win a few more perhaps even 50 or 100 more.

But within months or a year, what is left of the Congress in parliament and what is left of the BJP in parliament will be sure to self-destruct – and the country will go to the polls again, mid-term.

And this may be 2014 – or 2015 or 2016 or even 2019 – but that is when the AAP can actually make a stronger effort to come to power. And break the see-saw duopoly of UPA and NDA that they believe plagues the country.

Let’s see what they’ve done so far. They’ve put up a strong guy against Rahul G – and he seems to be doing well in Amethi – and an upset may well be possible there. Kejriwal set himself up against Modi – a positioning master-stroke, telling the world he was no less than the Gujarat CM in leadership potential. And who knows what can happen there. I personally wouldn’t bet against Kejriwal here.

Shazia Ilmi said no to to the AAP for going up against Sonia, not sure if they’ll field some one else – but it’ll be an amazing win to take on and defeat Sonia too.

But it might not be 3 on 3. But even 2 on 3 is good enough for the Gandhi dynasty to end in the Congress and the Modi raj to end in the BJP.

Now it’s too complex to tell the voter, don’t worry, there’ll be mid-term polls and we’re happy to come to power then. So the AAP positioning will be one of strength, one of toppling the twin demons right now.

But my point is just this – it doesn’t matter if the AAP gets 5 or 55 or 105 seats in the Lok Sabha.

If it wins Amethi and Varanasi – it’ll have pretty much set India to the path of repeal of the twin demons. And if it can pull off Rae Bareilly too, then it’s a comprehensive rout.

But let’s see what happens. All this is theorizing.

I’m no Congress fan, or Modi bhakt or anti-corruption zealot. But I have a pretty good idea what I’ll be voting for. 🙂

Oh, and thank you for reading this. Share it at will, if you like. And criticise it at will, as I am sure you will like, too 🙂

9 replies to “AAP needs only 3 seats to win India

  1. AAP might be least ambitious when it comes to retaining power, but most ambitious to gain power, which led them to tie up with Congress to form Government in Delhi; something which can happen again in the upcoming election. That is doomsday for me. Coalition Govenment plus Congress still in Parliament! I want to see stability at helm.
    Secondly, you can’t just criticize UPA and NDA for all the bad things and not talk about good things that they achieved. I agree corruption needs to stop, and it will, but it will take time. But governance should go on. Kejriwal hasn’t proved himself yet how good a PM he will be in terms of policy implementing etc. Kejriwal had an opportunity to prove his worth in Delhi but he resigned like a coward! And no, that wasn’t because BJP and Congress came together against Jan Lokpal Bill. It was because he knew his policies might backfire. His policies were criticized harshly by economists. Plus whatever subsidies he gave was out of profit earned by Congress. What has he done himself? Kejriwal is yet to prove himself.
    Congress is on the down-slide and AAP might win against both the Gs. It will be really interesting what happens to Congress after that. But winning in Varanasi won’t matter much as far as BJP is in the lead and Modi has the another seat to him. I really don’t think BJP will send him back to Gujurat for this.

    1. So An anti-AAP smart voter here..Firstly About AAP ambition to gain power…It was BJP who earlier asked AAP to form government and challenging him (basically forced AK) to form government and then declared AAP as B Team of Congress. Great ..Common Trick..AAP had seen that coming…
      Not to forget BJP extended unconditional support to AAP party which could be clearly seen the day AAP had to prove the majority in Delhi Assembly..did those 32 BJP candidates raise hands?? Ever dared to ask urself this??
      Just dont try to over-smart the very concept of voting- your duty is to vote the best candidate for u..We overthink ourselves saying, he cant get into majority, then why we shud vote for him, The thing is if everyone just believe this, then you maynot change this thinking even after 5 years or may be if this thinking was prevailed back, BJP would never be a national party. The thing that author is indirectly trying to claim here is “We Need To Have A Third Party”, otherwise we wud have any other options.

      Secondly, Obviously I can criticize them, And I will, Isn’t elections the time we should be criticizing them. And the funny part is you asking not to criticize UPA or NDA but you have declared AK a coward. AK announced this the day he came to government that Lokpal was dear to him and failing to implement this wud be fatal. Why Lokpal Bill was not passed. What the hell was the problem?? And dont try to fool me saying Mr Jung intervened. Bcoz Mr Jung knew this bill was to be passed 15 day before the date and guess what he writes the letter last day (specially when AK wud go to him for so many policy implementations). Are we fools?? No but you are who believe AK is a coward. If He was coward, He wouldnt fight Modi, because for me that’s a suicide mission. And We all know (specially the author), that corruption would take time to stop, but the scams the governmnt was involved in..they were huge.. Corruption will take time if we have to remove it from its root. But at ministry level, it has to be controlled. Any economist can simply suggest that Arvind’s policies were still economical as compared to scams going on. Plus subsidies, guess what, Many of us believe that Its the only payback we get, because the roads around me are not well, there’s too much dust and dirt around my living place ..Man where’s my tax going..Why they are reducing the subsidies on gas cylinders but not reducing taxes and at the same time, everythings’ prices goes up. If you are going to vote, just believe in to criticize !!!

  2. I haven’t seen a guy who like you who is so unaware of grass root realities of India and lives in his own fantasy world. Stop watching so many hollywood thrillers nd AAP propaganda.

    1. But surely I have so many like you, who thinks (for 4 years) he doesnt have any option, and when there comes time to take decisions (and he has an option) , he still goes for bad options and later says ” Nothing good can happen to this country. They all are the same.”. And you want to talk the grass root realities..The hardest one that I have realised is people dont want the change..and they believe in magic..We dont want to open the eyes and look at the facts by just google them…rather we would believe in what others would say and yes one more thing, they have stopped believing that a person can be good rather they believe no-one can be good..they all have some hidden agendas and only a few of people have capabities to see through them and yeah they themselves are the smart ones with those capabilities.!

  3. I agree with you mostly but one point. Don’t you think, Modi has taken care of the scenario (that you had theorized) if he loses from varanasi. He has sidelined (or thrown off-track) the best of BJP leaders including Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi , Jaswant Singh etc. For me, he is creating an hierarchy in BJP (as was in Congress) and sitting on root node.

  4. Interesting stuff.
    Let’s assume that AAP looses on these 3 seats plus they are able to win around 15 in total. Delhi votes again and BJP tips them to make a government ( i am not assuming anything irrational hsre). Do we see AAP dying, post all this?
    Or they will still be fightiing the way they are doing right now?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this:
close-alt close collapse comment ellipsis expand gallery heart lock menu next pinned previous reply search share star